New York City's Population Is Shrinking: Demographic Trends

(Bloomberg) -- New York City is shrinking.

Newly available Census Bureau population estimates indicate the Big Apple’s population is getting smaller for the second year in a row.

Beyond the city, more people have fled New York state than any other over this decade and that could cause a loss in congressional representation.

New York City’s five boroughs -- also classified as counties -- have contracted by a net of almost 40,000 over the last year. Only Staten Island is estimated to have grown.

About three quarters of New York state’s counties have seen a population decline over the past year. Only two counties grew by more than 1,000 people -- Orange County with 2,148 residents, faster than any other, and Saratoga by 1,061.

From April 1, 2010 to July 1, 2018, domestic migration left the Empire State with 1.2 million fewer inhabitants, though foreign immigration cushioned the loss. Also offsetting the loss, births outnumbered deaths. The overall change from April 1, 2010 is a modest gain of 164,085.

From July 1, 2017 to July 1, 2018, New York state’s population fell by 48,510 and New York City lost 39,523.

As a result, New York could lose congressional representation after the 2020 Census. By law, the number of seats in the House of Representatives is capped at 435 and population totals determine how the seats are divided nationwide.

Current population estimates show that New York will be the only state to lose two seats, putting it behind California, Texas and now Florida in the number of House members.

--With assistance from Greg Giroux.

To contact the reporter on this story: Alex Tanzi in Washington at atanzi@bloomberg.net

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Kristy Scheuble at kmckeaney@bloomberg.net, Vincent Del Giudice

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