New York, California, Rust Belt Will Drive Covid Death Surge

The Rust Belt, New York and California are likely to drive up the pace of Covid-19 deaths in coming weeks as the U.S. approaches 300,000 fatalities.

The U.S. will probably hit the grim milestone in the week of Dec. 13, according to a forecast from the University of Massachusetts Amherst’s Reich Lab based on dozens of independent models collected in collaboration with the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

In Pennsylvania, the tally of deaths in the first two weeks of December is likely to total 1,315, up 333 from the previous 14 days. That would be the biggest acceleration in the U.S, according to the Reich Lab’s COVID-19 Forecast Hub. Ohio deaths will probably climb by 294 to 958 for the period, and Michigan’s toll by 282 to 1,373.

Because of their large populations, New York and California are also expected to contribute to increasing the pace of deaths nationwide, even though deaths per capita remain relatively low compared with other regions.

Here are the five biggest forecast accelerations in Covid-19 deaths, based on the Forecast Hub’s figures for the two weeks ending Dec. 12:

StatePrevious 2 WeeksNext 2 WeeksIncrease
New York504712208

The U.S. posted 174,951 new Covid-19 cases Tuesday, bringing cumulative cases to over 13.7 million, according to Johns Hopkins University data. There have been about 271,000 deaths reported.

According to Covid Tracking Project data:

  • A record 98,691 Americans are currently hospitalized with Covid-19, with the worst per capita rates in South Dakota, Nevada and Indiana.
  • The 14-day average of new cases is rising in 27 states.
  • The following states posted record cases on Tuesday: New Hampshire, Delaware, Louisiana, Texas and Arizona.

©2020 Bloomberg L.P.

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