Poll Finds LDP Likely to Keep Majority: Japan Election

(Bloomberg) -- Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party is likely to keep substantially more than half the seats in parliament in this weekend’s general election, according to a media poll.

The survey by the Asahi newspaper, published late Monday, was the latest in a series of conflicting data, including another poll published by broadcaster FNN earlier the same day that found the LDP was in danger of losing its outright majority in parliament for the first time in 12 years. 

Kishida’s ruling coalition is expected to remain in control of the government, but a major loss of seats for the LDP could weaken the new leader’s grip over the party and increase the chances of him joining a long list of short-serving premiers.

Almost 50% of respondents to a Bloomberg poll of economists said Kishida might be pressured to produce a bigger stimulus package if his party fares badly in the election. He’s already pledged tens of trillions of yen. The Bank of Japan is seen as standing pat on stimulus at its meeting this week, the poll found. 

The Asahi survey also found the main opposition Constitutional Democratic Party is likely to stay mostly flat at 109. The newspaper polled about 354,000 people between Oct. 23-24 

Countdown:

Five days to go to the Oct. 31 vote that determines if Kishida can keep enough seats to maintain the outright majority the LDP has held for about nine years. When parliament was dissolved for the election, the LDP held 276 seats. If the party slips below the 233 simple majority in the 465-seat lower house, it’s expected to stay in power but would need the help of junior coalition partner Komeito, which held 29 seats.

Main Parties:

• Liberal Democratic Party, which has ruled the country for all but about four of the last 66 years
• Komeito, which has been in coalition with the LDP most of the time since 1999. Backed by a Buddhist group, it boasts a powerful machine to turn out the vote
• Constitutional Democratic Party, holds about 75% of the opposition seats. It’s trying to build its numbers with pledges to raise the minimum wage and show it can be trusted to run the government again after its predecessor was sent packing in 2012 following a series of policy U-turns

Other opposition parties include the Japan Communist Party, which held 12 seats in the lower house, Ishin, a metro-based group with 11 seats and the Democratic Party of the People with 10. Independents held 10 seats and there were four vacancies.

Key stories and developments:

• Cash, Covid and China Weigh on Japan Parties Ahead of Election
• BOJ Seen Standing Pat Before Tough Vote for Ruling Party: Survey
• Japan’s Kishida Suffers By-Election Setback Before National Vote
• Japan’s Ruling Party on Course for Majority, Kyodo Poll Says
• Japan’s Election Unlikely to Bring More Representation for Women
• Kishida Defends Japan Sales Tax From Opponents’ Calls for Cut
• Japan’s Future at Stake in Oct. 31 Vote, Premier Kishida Says

Media Roundup:

• Japan LDP Projected to Win Single-Party Majority: Asahi Survey
• Kyodo Poll Shows 29% Plan to Vote for LDP in Japan Election

Polls:

Almost 30% of voters plan to choose the ruling LDP in the proportional vote in Japan’s upcoming election on Oct. 31, a poll released over the weekend by Kyodo News showed. About 11% plan to vote for the main opposition party and 19% said they will pick one of the opposition parties. Around 48% said they have no positive expectations for Kishida’s economic policies, according to the Kyodo poll. 

A separate poll published by NHK on Monday found 48% of respondents said they supported Kishida’s cabinet and 59% said they approved of the government’s handling of the coronavirus, as cases and deaths dwindle rapidly. 

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