Nafta Deal, U.S. Recession Risk, U.K. Manufacturing: Eco Day

(Bloomberg) -- Good morning Americas. Here’s the latest news from Bloomberg Economics to get your October started:

  • U.S. President Donald Trump is set to sign a successor to the North American Free Trade Agreement that will make modest revisions to a deal he once called a “disaster,” easing uncertainty for companies reliant on tariff-free commerce
    • The U.S and Canada will now join Mexico in updating the 1994 accord, which will be renamed the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement. Here are highlights of what they agreed to
  • Two-thirds of business economists in the U.S. expect a recession to begin by the end of 2020, while a plurality of respondents say trade policy is the greatest risk to the expansion, according to a new survey
  • U.K. manufacturing growth unexpectedly accelerated in September, rounding off the third quarter on an upbeat note. A separate report showed a slowdown in consumer borrowing and a jump in remortgaging -- potentially early signs of the impact of the Bank of England’s August rate hike
  • The euro-zone economy still needs ample monetary stimulus to achieve the European Central Bank’s price stability goal, executive board member Benoit Coeure said in a newspaper interview
    • Meanwhile, there was mixed news for region’s economy Monday, with seaparate reports showing unemployment dropped, and growth in euro-area factory output slid to the weakest pace in two years as the spillover from trade wars is starting to dent demand
  • Italy’s jobless rate fell to 9.7 percent, the lowest level since January 2012, aiding the government coalition’s push to put more people back to work
  • Two gauges of activity in China’s manufacturing sector worsened in September, reflecting the nation’s economic slowdown and fallout from the trade war with the U.S.
  • Argentina’s new central bank chief, Guido Sandleris, had a rocky start last week, but he argues that his new IMF-backed monetary policy starts in earnest on Monday
  • Global neutral interest rate estimates are starting to pick up, according to research by Bloomberg Economics

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