New Zealand National Party Replaces Leader After Poll Slump

(Bloomberg) -- New Zealand’s main opposition party elected a new leader after a slump in opinion polls spooked its members of parliament four months out from a general election.

National Party MPs backed agriculture spokesman Todd Muller to replace Simon Bridges in a caucus vote Friday in Wellington. Muller challenged for the leadership after two disastrous polls this week showed support for National plummeting to as low as 29% from 46% three months ago.

Muller now faces the daunting task of trying to dethrone Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern, whose masterclass in crisis management during the coronavirus pandemic has seen her popularity soar. Support for Ardern’s Labour Party surged to 59% in a 1News/Colmar Brunton poll published yesterday, 30 percentage points ahead of National. The election will be held on Sept. 19.

“I don’t believe the right values and management skills are guiding this country at this time as it confronts the greatest challenge since the end of the Second World War,” Muller told a news conference after the leadership vote. “If we continue on this track of talking a big game but failing to deliver, we simply won’t recognize the New Zealand we’re a part of in a few years’ time.”

Virus Success

Bridges, who had been leader since early 2018, never rated highly in public opinion but fought off previous speculation about his position by keeping support for National above 40%. That changed with the pandemic. Ardern put the country into one of the strictest lockdowns in the world and fronted media conferences on an almost daily basis.

The approach appears to have succeeded in stamping out the virus and the lockdown was lifted last week. Still, the economic fallout will be severe, with unemployment expected to jump as many businesses go under. That may give Muller an opportunity to rebuild support for National, which is on the center-right of the political spectrum and has a reputation for sound economic management.

Muller, 51, entered parliament in 2014 as the MP for Bay of Plenty, a rural seat on New Zealand’s North Island. Prior to that he had a successful career in agri-business, working for kiwifruit marketer Zespri International and Fonterra Cooperative Group, the world’s biggest dairy exporter.

He had an interest in politics from a young age and once worked in the office of former prime minister Jim Bolger, who has endorsed him as a future National Party leader.

Muller is relatively unknown but his choice of deputy leader may bolster his chances.

Nikki Kaye, who replaces Paula Bennett, brings a wealth of experience and strong connections in Auckland, home to about a third of New Zealand’s five million people.

Kaye, 40, entered parliament in 2008 while still in her 20s by becoming the first National Party candidate to ever win the urban electorate of Auckland Central. She has retained the seat since, including two narrow victories over Ardern in 2011 and 2014.

After winning promotion to cabinet in 2013, her promising career went on hold in 2016 when she was diagnosed with breast cancer. However, she returned a year later after surgery and eventually became the nation’s youngest-ever Minister of Education.

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