More Investors Expect Trump to Win in 2020, RBC Survey Says

(Bloomberg) -- A growing majority of equity investors expect President Donald Trump will win re-election in 2020, according to an RBC survey.

In the firm’s December survey, 76% of 119 respondents said they thought Trump will win, a “big jump” from September’s 66%, Head of U.S. Equity Strategy Lori Calvasina wrote in a note. The figures reversed fading expectations regarding a Trump victory in June and September surveys. Those predicting a Democrat will win came in at 24% in December, down from 34% in September.

Two-thirds of RBC’s December respondents said a Trump victory would be good for stocks; only 4% were bearish on a Trump re-election, the lowest level since RBC began asking in June.

Read more: Earlier, Gallup Poll: Trump Approval Rating at Seven-Month High of 45%

The survey also showed Joe Biden’s “chances have stabilized and Warren fears have faded,” with those expecting Elizabeth Warren to win the Democratic nomination falling to 13% from 39% in September. RBC continues to think it’s too early for investors to call the Democratic primary.

Portfolio managers accounted for the bulk of respondents, while investors from a wide range of equity-related roles participated, RBC said.

Read more: Earlier, Mortgage Insurers to Gain No Matter Who Wins in 2020, Cowen Says

To contact the reporter on this story: Felice Maranz in New York at fmaranz@bloomberg.net

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Catherine Larkin at clarkin4@bloomberg.net, Jim Silver, Steven Fromm

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