Moody’s Says Tide of Populism Is Putting World’s Credit at Risk
Moody’s Says Tide of Populism Is Putting World’s Credit at Risk
The rating company said its 2020 outlook for global sovereign credit is negative, given unpredictable domestic and geopolitical risks and a push for populist policies that weaken institutions, help slow growth and boost the risk of economic and financial shocks. Governments will struggle to address further credit challenges in the coming year, analysts including Jaime Reusche, Calyn Lindquist and Marie Diron wrote in a note on Monday.
“‘Populist’ movements have emerged in recent years, either from the political fringe or from within established parties, often in reaction to years of stagnant incomes and rising income inequality,” they wrote. “Escalating global and regional trade tensions increase the risk of financial or economic shocks, and the weakening of multilateral institutions dents policy makers’ ability to deal with those shocks.”
In Latin America, social demands in recent months make it harder for authorities to target reform and fiscal programs that support growth and public finances, they wrote. Weaker governance undermines creditworthiness, and less predictability means governments will be less resilient to shocks such as the U.S.-China trade war, especially in emerging markets.
Most emerging and frontier-market sovereigns are also running out of room to tweak fiscal and monetary policy because of their vulnerability to capital flow reversals, Moody’s said. The analysts expect flows to remain under pressure in 2020 and beyond, especially if the the U.S. and China escalate their trade spat or growth worsens in higher-debt countries.
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