Mexico Government Close to Keeping Congress Super-Majority: Poll

President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador’s ruling coalition is close to retaining its lower house super-majority in Mexican midterm elections, according to Parametria’s last pre-election poll, in what would be a stronger result than some are expecting.

The president’s Morena party will hold 48% of the lower house of Congress with 239 seats, slightly short of its current 253, Parametria said in a survey shared with Bloomberg News. Lopez Obrador’s coalition will take 315 seats when combined with its allied Green Party and Worker’s Party, just below the 334 required for the super-majority, according to the poll.

The June 6 midterms, which usually see the ruling party lose seats, present the biggest challenge yet to Lopez Obrador’s self-declared “fourth transformation” of Mexican society. While losing the super-majority would be a blow to his goal of passing constitutional reforms to the energy sector, the government would just need to negotiate the support of 19 additional lawmakers to reach that threshold.

Mexico Government Close to Keeping Congress Super-Majority: Poll

Forty percent of decided voters said they would back Morena, while 7% supported the Green party and 4% chose the Worker’s party. For the opposition, the PRI came in second with 16%, followed by the PAN with 15%. Movimiento Ciudadano is seen picking up 7%.

While Mexico pollster GEA-ISA projects the ruling coalition will only pick up 259 seats, a report by Goldman Sachs Group Inc. using data from Oraculus’s poll of polls gives the ruling coalition 322 seats.

Mexico Government Close to Keeping Congress Super-Majority: Poll

Electoral rules allow a party to hold a maximum of 8 percentage points more seats than the proportion of votes it won in the election, meaning a party would need 42% of the vote to win 50% of the chamber.

Parametria expects record voter turnout for a midterm in Mexico’s biggest ever election by number of candidates. Up for grabs are the entire lower house of Congress, 15 state governorships and thousands of city halls and local legislature positions.

The poll surveyed 1,000 voters in person between May 22 and 28, with a margin for error of plus or minus 3.1%.

©2021 Bloomberg L.P.

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