McDonald’s U.S. Traffic Beats 2019 Levels at Lunch, Dinner: Data

(Bloomberg) -- U.S. restaurants are struggling through their worst year in recent history, but you wouldn’t know it looking at McDonald’s Corp.

Traffic at the burger chain is trending above 2019 levels in the afternoons and evenings, according to smartphone location data from SafeGraph analyzed by Bloomberg News. Lunch time is leading the way, with visits up more than 10% from a year ago at several points in mid-September. Dinner also saw an uptick, the SafeGraph data show, even as breakfast remains just below 2019 levels as the virus continues to disrupt morning commutes.

Still, breakfast traffic has improved faster than at many rivals. McDonald’s visits between 6 a.m. and 11 a.m. were down about 5% as of late September, the latest smartphone data show.

McDonald’s declined to comment. Executives called breakfast a “challenged” part of the day during the second-quarter earnings call, noting that it was recovering faster on the weekdays than the weekends but that the gap between the two was narrowing.

McDonald’s, which in July said domestic same-store sales had turned slightly positive after a tough spring, has recently announced several new offerings, including a spicy version of its chicken McNuggets and limited-edition celebrity meals. Analysts expect McDonald’s third-quarter U.S. same-store sales to rise 1.7%, fueled by the menu innovation along with a strong drive-thru business and increased marketing, Bloomberg Intelligence said.

Global sales have lagged domestic demand during the pandemic, with international comparable-store sales expected to fall in the third quarter due to weakness in China and Europe, where a larger percentage of revenue comes from in-store transactions, Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Michael Halen wrote.

The company’s shares are up about 13% this year, dropping slightly Tuesday with the wider market on news of delayed stimulus talks after closing Monday at a new record high.

The data from SafeGraph captures in-person foot traffic as well as drive-thru visits that involve at least a little waiting. Delivery orders would not appear in the data

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