May's Letter Asking for Only Short Extension Came as Shock to EU
May's Letter Asking for Only Short Extension Came as Shock to EU
(Bloomberg) -- The European Union had no idea about what was in Theresa May’s Brexit letter until she called European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker shortly before addressing U.K. Parliament at lunchtime.
It came as a surprise.
Senior EU diplomats who had been kept in the loop about discussions between London and Brussels in recent days had been told that May would probably ask for a “hybrid” extension that would keep the U.K. in the bloc for a short period if the deal is passed next week, and a long one if not, officials said.
May’s de facto deputy had also given that impression during private meetings in Brussels on Tuesday, officials said. That prompted the EU’s chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier to double down on his insistence that a long extension could only be granted if there was a major new “event” in Britain, such as an election or a second referendum.
But the letter May sent, after coming under pressure from the pro-Brexit wing of her government, suggested nothing of the sort.
June 30
The note to the EU sets out her plan to put the deal back to Parliament for a third time, with an extension until June 30 to allow for outstanding legislation. That date allows the U.K. to avoid participating in European Parliament elections, which the EU said is a prerequisite for any delay that might overrun.
The EU’s plan A -- even if officials think it’s unlikely -- is still to hope that the British Parliament backs May’s plan next week -- in the nick of time.
At a summit in Brussels on Thursday, leaders are likely to allow an extension pending that result, officials said. That is why European Council President Donald Tusk said such a delay “will be possible” if the elected of House of Commons -- which has twice rejected the deal -- decides to back it.
Irish Prime Minister Leo Varadkar said it’s time to cut the British “some slack.”
What if She Fails?
EU officials say they see the risk of a looming catastrophe and the mood in Brussels is bleak as they realize that May has backed them into a corner too.
Behind the scenes, governments are urging the EU to call a crisis summit for March 28 -- the day before Brexit is supposed to happen -- where they’ll try to work out what to do next. That could involve trying to persuade May into an extension whatever the circumstances, even if just to give both sides more time to plan for a disorderly crash-out, an official said.
Despite countries like France and Belgium playing hardball in public, EU officials said that averting a calamitous no-deal on March 29 is now the priority and they are very unlikely to push the U.K. out without a safety net because it would damage them too.
Officials predicted the discussion at Thursday’s summit, after May has addressed the 27 remaining leaders, won’t be as tense as once expected -- when they thought this would be the moment that would decide the U.K.’s fate.
Leaders know they’ve dodged having to make the really difficult choice: what to do if May’s deal doesn’t pass. That historic decision might now not happen until within 24 hours of the U.K.’s scheduled exit -- very much in keeping with EU tradition.
To contact the reporter on this story: Ian Wishart in Brussels at iwishart@bloomberg.net
To contact the editors responsible for this story: Ben Sills at bsills@bloomberg.net, Emma Ross-Thomas, Flavia Krause-Jackson
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