Mahomes-Brady Shootout Could Signal Roaring Returns for S&P 500

Sunday’s Super Bowl between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers is expected to feature fireworks from two of the NFL’s top offenses -- and, as long as it does, history says that bodes well for U.S. stock investors.

And if you’re long stocks, vote for a shootout.

Why? Because whenever the two teams combine for at least 46 points in the Big Game, the stock market has gone on to return an average 15.9% that year, findings from S&P Global Market Intelligence show. That’s more than double the return if the offenses score less, which results in just a 7.3% gain in data going back to the dawn of the Super Bowl in 1967.

So this game’s over-under of 56.5 points -- the total number of points bettors expect the two teams to rack up -- should put superstitious money managers at ease. In the regular season that just ended, Kansas City’s Patrick Mahomes and Tampa Bay’s Tom Brady -- both former MVP quarterbacks -- showcased their knack for slinging , resulting in both the Chiefs and the Bucs averaging about 30 points per game.

To be sure, S&P Global’s annual statistical analysis of Super Bowl whimsy contains the usual disclaimer, cautioning that the numbers are “not intended to represent a fundamental analysis of market trends or historical data and in no way is intended to be the basis for any investment decisions whatsoever.” Instead, S&P calls the research a “light-hearted look at Super Bowl history, winners and losers and stock market returns.”

Don’t attach much weight to S&P’s findings? Consider this. Last year’s high-scoring Super Bowl 54 match-up between Mahomes’ Chiefs and the San Francisco 49ers resulted in 51 points, topping the predicted 46-point threshold for outperformance.

And, as a reminder, how did the market do last year? As foretold by the Super Bowl, the S&P 500 finished with a 16% gain, global pandemic and recession be damned (albeit, after crashing first).

Oh, and one other thing.

While both the Chiefs (in 1970 and 2020) and the Buccaneers (2003) have already won a Super Bowl, bulls should really break out the Dom Perignon and toast a Bucs win.

For some reason, the stock market has historically outperformed whenever a National Football Conference team wins the big game.

This year, that means the Bucs -- who are the first team ever to play the Super Bowl in their home stadium, and are also the designated home team. That’s another bullish indicator for the stock market.

Wait. There’s more.

Whenever the favored team wins the Super Bowl, stocks on average go on to rally 13.7% that year, compared to only 8.8% when the underdog is crowned. In which case, cheer for Kansas City -- who Las Vegas oddsmakers have made a three-point favorite.

©2021 Bloomberg L.P.

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