Madagascar Expects Economic Turnaround in 2021 With 4.5% Growth

(Bloomberg) -- Madagascar, the world’s biggest producer of vanilla, forecast economic growth of 4.5% in 2021 compared with a 3.8% contraction this year.

The budget deficit is seen declining to 5.5% of gross domestic product next year from 6.3%.

Net fiscal revenue is expected to rise 38.5% to 6.4 trillion ariary ($1.6 billion). Expenditure will reach 11.42 trillion ariary from 10.64 trillion ariary a year ago. External grants of about $365 million are expected.

“The Malagasy state will continue to support national demand and supply by targeting job generating sectors such as construction, rural economy, handicraft and entrepreneurship,” the Economy and Finance Ministry said in a 2021 budget bill on its website.

The ariary may depreciate by 3.7% against the dollar on average next year. A rebound in tourism activities from the first quarter, higher exports and foreign direct investment will support the currency, according to the bill.

©2020 Bloomberg L.P.