Luxury Sales Could Fall as Much as 35% This Year, Bain Says

(Bloomberg) -- The luxury-goods market will shrink between 15% and 35% this year as the coronavirus and efforts to control it hammer sales of high-end goods, consultancy Bain forecast in a report.

Steep declines in luxury sales have closely mirrored the geographic spread of the virus during the first quarter, starting in China and then moving to Europe and the Americas, Bain said Thursday. First-quarter sales have probably fallen by 25% to 30%.

The U.K.’s Burberry Group Plc has warned investors that sales will fall as much as 50%, and Gucci-owner Kering has predicted a less severe drop of around 15%.

Even if demand bounces back in the second half, that won’t make up for the missed sales at the start of the year, according to the report. The pandemic’s impact will probably stretch into 2021, Bain said.

“Some countries will likely experience a rapid rebound while others will see more of a dip and stabilization,” Bain said.

A Bloomberg index of global luxury stocks has fallen 26% this year.

©2020 Bloomberg L.P.