Leaving the EU to Cost U.K. $128 Billion, Anti-Brexit Group Says

(Bloomberg) -- Brexit will cut the value of the U.K. economy by 100 billion pounds ($128 billion) a year by 2030 compared with staying in the European Union, according to research commissioned by the People’s Vote, a group campaigning against leaving the bloc.

The study, by think tank Niesr, is the first analysis of Prime Minister Theresa May’s Brexit deal which she will start selling to U.K. politicians this week. The deal was signed off on Sunday by EU leaders, who said it can’t be renegotiated.

The Bank of England will present its own analysis to lawmakers on Thursday, along with a scenario covering leaving without a deal. Parliament’s Treasury Committee will also hear testimony from economists, Treasury officials and BOE Governor Mark Carney. The Treasury is also due to publish its analysis of the deal this week.

The People’s Vote study says that the current plan would mean a “catastrophic reduction in trade and investment.”

By 2030, GDP would be 3.9 percent below the baseline case of staying in the EU, total trade between the U.K. and the EU would fall by 46 percent and foreign direct investment would decline by 21 percent. Tax revenue would also suffer, according to the report.

Anna Soubry, a lawmaker who leads the campaign for a second referendum, said the findings were more conservative than the government’s forecasts because Niesr assumed a no-deal exit would be orderly rather than chaotic.

“If Mrs May’s agreement goes through, the economic prospects for our country will be diminished,” she said at a launch of the report on Monday.

To contact the reporters on this story: Fergal O'Brien in Zurich at fobrien@bloomberg.net;Jessica Shankleman in London at jshankleman@bloomberg.net

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Fergal O'Brien at fobrien@bloomberg.net, Flavia Krause-Jackson

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