Russian Data Credibility, British Wages, Factory Bounce: Eco Day

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Welcome to Monday, Europe. Here’s the latest news and analysis from Bloomberg Economics to help get your day started:

• Two months ago, Russia’s statistics agency put a dent in its own credibility, publishing a growth estimate for 2018 that far exceeded even the most optimistic forecasts. Now it has a chance to explain itself
• The European Union’s Jean-Claude Juncker warned that the bloc’s patience could run out, as he urged a decision from London on Brexit within hours or days
  • Brexit is currently the biggest political risk to markets, which aren’t yet pricing in a no-deal departure, European Central Bank Governing Council member Klaas Knot was cited as saying Sunday
• Millions of British workers celebrate the 20th anniversary of the national minimum wage on Monday -- with another inflation-busting wage rise.
• Italy doesn’t have room for expansive fiscal measures as economic growth is close to zero amid the slowdown in Germany, the nation’s finance chief said
• Back to Knot. He was cited as saying that the European Central Bank would need a clear monetary-policy reason to consider acting to mitigate the effects of negative interest rates on banks
• In Asia, sentiment at factories stabilized in March as a rebound in China buoyed the region. Japan’s Nikkei and IHS Markit manufacturing purchasing managers’ index for March rose to 49.2 from 48.9 in February. South Korea’s PMI rose to 48.8 from 47.2 in the previous month. Still, both readings remain below 50, signaling contraction
  • China’s first official economic gauge for March signaled a stabilization in the world’s second-largest economy, easing one of the biggest worries for the global outlook
• President Donald Trump ratcheted up his pressure on the Fed, saying U.S. GDP would be higher if it had “not mistakenly raised interest rates.” Trump’s pick to serve on the central bank’s board said he’d be independent and that he doesn’t always agree with the president
• Inflation in Southeast Asia’s two biggest economies, Indonesia and Thailand, diverged in March, putting the two nations on possibly different monetary policy courses
• Down in Australia, with an election just weeks away and the government trailing badly in opinion polls, Prime Minister Scott Morrison is mounting a last-ditch effort to woo back disaffected voters with a spending spree

To contact the reporter on this story: Anirban Nag in Mumbai at anag8@bloomberg.net

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Nasreen Seria at nseria@bloomberg.net, Henry Hoenig

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