JPMorgan, TD Betting on 5-Year Treasuries Ahead of Fed Meeting

(Bloomberg) -- JPMorgan Chase & Co. and TD Securities are recommending that investors buy five-year Treasuries, as the Federal Reserve is likely to signal this week it intends to support the economy as long as needed.

With the so-called “dot plot” acting as forward guidance, and expected to show no rate hikes through the end of 2022, there is a buying opportunity in medium-term bonds, according to JPMorgan strategists including Matthew Jozoff. The central bank will be on hold “for a long time,” making five-year notes attractive, said TD’s Priya Misra and Gennadiy Goldberg.

“We see the Fed reinforcing its guidance somewhat,” the JPMorgan team wrote Friday. “Given current valuations, we think there is room for intermediate yields to stabilize, and we recommend adding duration in five-year Treasuries.”

Five-year yields were little changed Monday at 0.46%, having risen 16 basis points last week as the U.S. economy continued to re-open and employment data smashed expectations. JPMorgan has a year-end forecast of 0.40% on the securities, while TD’s target for its “strategic” trade recommendation is 0.30%.

Fed Commitment

Fed officials will publish new forecasts this week, and Chairman Jerome Powell is expected to re-affirm the central bank will use its full range of tools to support the U.S. economy during the pandemic. Previous meetings where the Fed made adjustments to guidance were genuinely supportive of lower yields, JPMorgan said.

Meanwhile, expectations for the Fed to undertake yield-curve control by the end of the year, and the risk of a second wave of coronavirus infections should also help support Treasuries, according to TD. The strategists suggest investors double down on five-year notes if yields continue to rise.

“We initiate half our risk here and look to add to the position if we get closer to 0.60%,” the TD strategists wrote Friday. “The biggest risk is a much stronger economic rebound and a move higher in longer-term rates.”

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