JPMorgan Sees Wealth Tax Chance Less Than 5%, Even With Sanders

(Bloomberg) -- There’s a long way to go from Iowa to a wealth tax, according to JPMorgan.

“We put the probability of major changes like Medicare-for-all or a wealth tax at less than 5%,” analyst Jesse Edgerton wrote on Friday, noting that after the Iowa caucus, Bernie Sanders leads the Democratic field in election models and prediction markets.

Edgerton sees a very low probability that “dramatic” policy proposals from Sanders or Elizabeth Warren will be enacted, as the Democratic nomination process is far from over and the likelihood of a victory by Donald Trump “looks close to a coin flip,” with prediction markets putting the president’s re-election chances a bit above 50%. “Even if Senator Sanders were to become president, there would still be many checks and balances on his ability to act,” Edgerton added.

Read more: Dec. 20, JPMorgan Turns Bullish on Managed Care as Political Fears Ease

Sanders, Pete Buttigieg and other candidates will meet to debate face-to-face on Friday night in Manchester, New Hampshire.

Read more: Feb. 4, Iowa Chaos Strengthens Trump’s 2020 Chances: Wall Street Votes

(Michael Bloomberg is seeking the Democratic nomination. He is the founder and majority shareholder of Bloomberg LP, the parent company of Bloomberg News.)

To contact the reporter on this story: Felice Maranz in New York at fmaranz@bloomberg.net

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Catherine Larkin at clarkin4@bloomberg.net, Scott Schnipper

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