Japan's Economy Set to Shrink in Second Quarter, Top Forecaster Says
Japan's Economy Set to Shrink in Second Quarter, Top Forecaster Says
(Bloomberg) -- Japan’s economy is set to contract in the current quarter following growth that was better than first estimated in the first three months of the year, according to one of the country’s top economic forecasters.
Gross domestic product is likely to shrink by 0.5% in the second quarter, Yoshiki Shinke, chief economist at Dai-Ichi Life Research, said in a note, adding that the economy was currently in poor shape despite the expansion at the start of the year.
Shinke’s comments add to economists’ views that Japan’s economy isn’t as healthy as the latest GDP data suggests. He has been named one of the nation’s best forecasters by the Japan Center for Economic Research.
Growth in the first quarter was propped up by falling imports, and the details in Monday’s revised release were bad, with consumption and capital spending both hovering around zero, he said. In the current quarter, imports were likely falling with business investment starting to drag on the economy.
The stalling of the economy is likely to continue, given China’s ongoing slowdown and the fact that adjustment of global technology inventories still had a ways to go, he added.
To contact the reporter on this story: Shiho Takezawa in Tokyo at stakezawa2@bloomberg.net
To contact the editors responsible for this story: Brett Miller at bmiller30@bloomberg.net, Paul Jackson, Henry Hoenig
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