Japan at Risk of Another Power Crunch in Upcoming Winter
Japan at Risk of Another Power Crunch in Upcoming Winter
(Bloomberg) -- Japan could see yet another power crunch next winter as demand outstrips supply, according to analysis from the country’s grid coordinator.
The power reserve ratio, which measures available spare capacity, could turn negative for the Tokyo area in January and February 2023 should it be a severely cold winter, the Organization for Cross-Regional Coordination of Transmission Operators said in a Tuesday report. Other parts of the country could also see ratios fall below the minimum 3% often required to maintain power balance during those months, OCCTO said.
This is the second winter in a row that Japan is predicting an electricity deficit for the capital city, highlighting how the grid is being stretched by the retirement of older power plants and increase in intermittent renewables. The report also comes just weeks after the nation’s capital and surrounding areas almost suffered widespread blackouts because of frigid temperatures, rainy skies and generators being shut from of an earlier earthquake.
Japan may need to restart some of its older and inefficient thermal power plants for the upcoming winter months, but even that may not be enough to bring up the electricity reserve margins, OCCTO said. Measures to curb demand will need to be considered ahead of time, according to the grid coordinator.
Several gas- and coal-fired power plant units that were knocked out due to an earthquake last month have yet to restart. It’s unclear when they will be back up and running, OCCTO said. The grid coordinator also expects power supply to be tight during the peak summer months in the event of extreme heat. The power reserve ratio is estimated to shrink as low as 3% for Tokyo and two other areas in July.
Ongoing planned work at Kyushu Electric Power Co.’s Genkai nuclear plant could reduce available supply, the grid coordinator said. The plant’s No. 3 unit, originally scheduled to restart on June 25, will go back online on January 20, the utility said in March. Its No. 4 unit will also go through planned maintenance through February.
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