Islamist Militant Attacks Surged Most in Emerging LNG Giant

(Bloomberg) -- Mozambique suffered the biggest increase in attacks by Islamist militants globally last year, with violence centered around the gas-rich Cabo Delgado province, according to a security report.

Islamic State in June started claiming responsibility for incidents that began in 2017 and have killed more than 800 people and forced 100,000 to flee their homes. Attacks more than tripled in 2019 from the previous year, according to Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project’s annual report released last week. Globally, Afghanistan remained the most affected by skirmishes, while clashes also surged in Burkina Faso.

Not only has the violence in Mozambique killed hundreds of people, it’s occurring in the region where companies like Total SA and Exxon Mobil Corp. are building what will be Africa’s largest-ever investments. The liquefied natural gas projects in the far north have largely been unscathed, although a contract worker was killed last year, delaying work.

“Mozambique also registered one of the greatest increases in reported fatalities last year, with 438 more fatalities in 2019 than in 2018, or an increase of 197%,” ACLED said in the report. “This rise is linked to the worsening insurgency in the northernmost province of Cabo Delgado.”

The frequency of attacks has continued to increase this year, and violence is getting closer to the provincial capital of Pemba, according to Tristan Gueret, an analyst at Risk Advisory Group in London.

“The security situation in Cabo Delgado continues to deteriorate,” he said. “Militants have also increased their area of operation further south and inland in the province.”

While the violence probably won’t threaten the viability of nearly $60 billion in LNG projects planned, it could complicate logistics. A surge in road ambushes could disrupt transport lines, according to Gueret. There have also been reports of insurgents posing as members of the security forces and setting up fake checkpoints, he said.

“We continue to monitor security developments in the Cabo Delgado region and work closely with the government regarding appropriate safeguards to protect people, operations and facilities,” Exxon Mobil spokesman Todd Spitler said in an emailed response to questions. “The safety and security of our employees, contractors and the people who work and live around our operations is a top priority.”

Total and Mozambique’s defense ministry didn’t respond to emails seeking comment on the attacks.

Flooding that’s destroyed key bridges has also made conditions more difficult. For now, damage to bridges connecting the city of Pemba and the Afungi peninsula, where the projects are, mean that most cargo is being barged by sea.

The crash in oil and gas prices this week increases execution risks. LNG projects yet to be approved, including Mozambique’s, face the biggest threat this year and next, Wood Mackenzie Ltd. research director Giles Farrer said in a note on Wednesday. Total’s Mozambique LNG project was approved last year, but Exxon is yet to sanction its bigger development.

Who’s Behind The Attacks?

• Local residents refer to the groups carrying out the attacks as “al-Shabaab,” yet there is no clear link to the Somali Islamists that use the name
• IS has claimed at least 26 incidents in Cabo Delgado, according to Jasmine Opperman, Africa analyst at ACLED. Still, there is no evidence the group provides material support, said Ryan Cummings, director at Signal Risk in Cape Town
• IS in Somalia is the command center for what it calls its Central Africa Province, or ISCAP, comprising affiliates in Mozambique and the Democratic Republic of Congo, according to a United Nations Security Council report
• ISCAP includes 2,000 locals and a “large contingent” of foreign fighters, the report said
• The group’s leadership structure remains blurry, it said

To contact the reporters on this story: Matthew Hill in Maputo at mhill58@bloomberg.net;Borges Nhamire in Maputo at bnhamire@bloomberg.net

To contact the editors responsible for this story: John McCorry at jmccorry@bloomberg.net, Hilton Shone, Karl Maier

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