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Inside the Political Deal to Save Netanyahu and Push Annexation

Inside the Political Deal to Save Netanyahu and Push Annexation

(Bloomberg) -- Nearly 17 months of political paralysis in Israel could be nearing an end now that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has overcome court challenges to his continued rule and to the power-sharing agreement he signed with bitter rival Benny Gantz.

It’s a big achievement for Netanyahu because he gets to stay in power for the next 18 months even though he’s charged in three corruption cases. For former military chief Gantz, it meant abandoning his pledge never to sit in government with the scandal-tainted leader, with no assurance he’ll spend more than a few months in the prime minister’s office.

The pact paves the way for a broad government led by Netanyahu’s Likud party and Gantz’s Blue and White. It gives the indicted Netanyahu influence over senior judicial appointees, and allows him to pursue his promise of annexing West Bank territory the Palestinians want for a future state. The two leaders plan to swear in their joint administration on May 13.

Here are some details:

Power Sharing

While Israel had a rotating premiership once before in the 1980s, the current arrangement is unique in that it gives both Netanyahu and Gantz prime ministerial privileges and trappings, like official residences, simultaneously. Gantz -- who teamed with Netanyahu to tackle the coronavirus outbreak and avert another election after three inconclusive votes -- is to take over for 18 months in October 2021. After that, each man has the option to serve an additional nine months.

Other provisions in the pact threaten to set the stage for political paralysis by granting each camp parity in cabinet and on parliamentary committees. During the first six months, when the government will be operating on an emergency footing to deal with the health emergency, Netanyahu and Gantz must agree on any legislation promoted.

After that half-year period, they must agree on the legislative agenda.

Gantz’s camp will control the ministries of defense, foreign affairs and justice. Netanyahu and his partners will hold the finance and health ministries, and the parliamentary speakership.

All this power-sharing is based on the notion the deal doesn’t unravel. New elections will be set in motion if Netanyahu is barred for some reason from taking office.

Analysts have also speculated that Netanyahu wants to run for president after his 18-month stint in the prime minister’s office, to enjoy the immunity from prosecution that position confers.

Annexation

Netanyahu has spent the last year vowing to start applying Israeli sovereignty to territory in the West Bank, which the Palestinians view as the core of their future state. The push won the backing of U.S. President Donald Trump, and it was incorporated in the Middle East peace plan he unveiled in January.

Starting July 1, lawmakers are allowed to go forward with the plan, according to the agreement. U.S. Ambassador to Israel David Friedman said in a recent interview with local media that America is ready to recognize an Israeli declaration of sovereignty over the Jordan Valley and Jewish settlements in the West Bank.

Such a unilateral move would sap the Palestinians’ dream of an independent state, and after the power-sharing deal was signed, they lamented the prospect of another Netanyahu-led government.

Annexation of West Bank territory, captured in the 1967 Middle East war, had been considered taboo for decades in Israeli politics because of the international outcry it would spark. But as religious and nationalist political parties gained clout, and peacemaking with the Palestinians drifted off the country’s agenda amid continuing Palestinian attacks, the notion has won widespread currency.

Rule of Law

Netanyahu stands accused of illicitly taking gifts and scheming to tilt legislation to benefit media publishers in exchange for sympathetic coverage. His trial is scheduled to begin May 24, and the prime minister has sought to hold onto his office hoping it would improve his legal prospects.

The question of prime minister’s fitness for office led to court challenges. An expanded 11-judge bench rejected petitions that sought to both bar him from forming the next government and strike down the accord, which required amendments to Israel’s quasi-constitutional Basic Laws.

Still, justices left the door open for future rulings on the pact, saying “at this point” there is no reason to intervene. The good governance group that launched the petitions has already filed another court challenge now that parliament has anchored the underpinnings of the deal in law. It claims sections of the agreement harm Israel’s system of government.

Will It Last?

Having co-opted Gantz into assisting him, Netanyahu may have an interest in ensuring the deal’s success.

“It legitimizes him because the party that ran on anything but Bibi will now allow him to stay in power,” said Reuven Hazan, a Hebrew University political scientist, using Netanyahu’s nickname. “Politically it decapitates the only real challenge he has had to his power since 2009.”

After Gantz agreed to team up with Netanyahu, two allied parties broke off from Blue and White, badly weakening him as a potential future challenger.

While Netanyahu initially i just saw a formatting prorode high in the polls because of his assertive response to the coronavirus, it’s not clear his approval ratings will hold once the economic pain of the shutdowns deepens. That could make another snap election risky.

©2020 Bloomberg L.P.