In Tight Georgia Battle, Asian Americans Could Decide the Vote

(Bloomberg) -- When Joe Biden popped up in Warm Springs, Georgia, Tuesday afternoon to stump for votes, it underscored just how up for grabs the long-time Republican state has become this presidential election. And if Biden manages to become the first Democratic candidate to turn Georgia blue in 28 years, Asian Americans will likely play a decisive role in that victory.

Their ranks have soared in counties surrounding Atlanta in recent years, attracted to jobs in tech, science and medicine. Now up to almost a quarter million registered voters —  more than enough to tip a tight race — Asian Americans here lean heavily Democratic and are highly motivated by economic issues, like income inequality and the call for higher taxes on the rich, pollsters say.

Indian Americans, the largest and wealthiest Asian group in Georgia, are the most inclined to vote for Democrats, research shows. That’s partly due to experiences in their native country, where they’ve seen government-funded higher education, for example, pull many out of hardship. 

“We understand what it is to come from the bottom, to have that kind of opportunity to rise up,” said SK Raj, a technology executive and president of the Georgia Indo-American Chamber of Commerce.

A Monmouth University poll released Wednesday showed Biden with a five percentage-point lead over  President Donald Trump in Georgia. It’s the first poll in the state where his lead exceeds the margin of error.

Economic Issues

Asian Americans in Georgia and across the South “are aligning with a lot of bread-and-butter Democratic issues,” said Janelle Wong, a professor of government and politics at the University of Maryland.  At least 70% of that population in the South believe the federal government should do more to reduce income inequality and the same percentage believe the minimum wage should be raised, according to Wong’s research. 

The economic fallout from Covid-19 is also likely to impact votes in Georgia, where Asian Americans own as many as 19% of restaurants, according to a report this year in the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. Small business ownership across the community is huge, said Stephanie Cho, executive director of the non-partisan civil rights organization, Asian Americans Advancing Justice-Atlanta. 

Georgia’s overall unemployment rose last month to 6.4% from 5.7% in August, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, which doesn’t report jobless rates by ethnic groups for the state on a monthly basis.

Changing Landscape

Much has been made of the impact of suburban women increasingly tilting blue, as well as an influx of younger, liberal-leaning northerners moving to southern cities like Atlanta.  Yet the voting ranks of Asian Americans have been growing faster than most any other in the state — up 47% between 2010 and 2018, compared with 9% overall for eligible Georgia voters.  They now account for just under 5% of the state electorate.

“There’s a saying that the Asian American community has gone from being a marginalized community to being the margin of victory,” said Sam Park, the first Asian American Democrat elected to the Georgia General Assembly. “That could be very true here in Georgia.”  

Their cultural and economic impact is increasingly visible in the state, particularly in its second-largest county of Gwinnett, where more than 12% of the population is of Asian descent and which is home to one of the largest Hindu temples outside of India — the sprawling, traffic-stopping BAPS Shri Swaminarayan Mandir.  The county is also becoming a hotbed for tech companies.

Software developer Ben Ku, who serves on the Gwinnett county commission, said he’s a Biden backer in part because he believes the former vice president is the best economically for the tech industry flourishing in his county: “It’s refreshing hearing from a candidate who believes in science.”

Here’s how math could work in Biden’s favor:

Two years ago, 78% of Asian Americans supported Democrat Stacey Abrams for governor of Georgia compared with 49% of voters overall, exit polling showed, and she lost the race by fewer than 55,000 votes. Since then, more Asian Americans have moved to the state, reached voting age or become naturalized citizens, said Cho from Asian Americans Advancing Justice-Atlanta.  

As of Tuesday, nearly half of the more that 71,000 Asians who voted early in Georgia didn’t cast a ballot in the 2016 election, according to data compiled by Georgiavotes.com.

Trump Support

Despite Abrams success in 2018 among Asian Americans, businessman Ritesh “Rick” Desai, a Georgia board member with Indian Voices for Trump, said the early voting and excitement among the state’s Asian Americans will benefit the president, who he expects to capture at least 60% of their vote. 

The Trump campaign has made a strong outreach to the community, he said, including sending son Eric to Georgia last month to speak to more than 300 people.

“The silent majority are the Trump supporters,” Desai said. “That’s the one message we’re getting.”  

Cam Ashling, a member of the Georgia Asian Americans and Pacific Islanders for Biden-Harris leadership council, said neither party should take the demographic for granted. 

Georgia is “clearly a battleground state,” and the Asian vote will be a major deciding factor, she said.

“The election will be decided on new voters and low-propensity voters,” said Ashling. “Because we already know how more-regular voters will vote.”

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