In Bond Rout, Strategists Struggle to Keep Up With Yield Rise

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Less than two months into 2021, yields on 10-year Treasuries have almost gotten to where strategists think they’ll end the year, underscoring just how ferocious the bond selloff has been.

Although analysts boosted their average forecast since Dec. 31 by 24 basis points to 1.48%, investors have pushed up the yield at an even faster pace, leaving it only 4 basis points away from their projection for the end of 2021.

In Bond Rout, Strategists Struggle to Keep Up With Yield Rise


Treasuries are getting battered amid bets on a sunnier outlook for the global economy and the risk that higher inflation is just around the corner. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell this week assured investors that the central bank is in no rush to pull back stimulus, encouraging investors to push the U.S. yield curve steeper.

Rates on 10-year notes rose to a one-year high of 1.47% Thursday before paring back some of the increase. The difference between 2- and 10-year Treasury yields climbed to 132 basis points, the highest since December 2016.

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