He'll Be Justice Kavanaugh on Monday If Betting Line Is Right

(Bloomberg) -- It’s been a wild ride.

The Brett Kavanaugh drama is finally coming to an end, and if the prediction markets are right, the final act will end with him securing a lifetime appointment to the U.S. Supreme Court.

The cost of a “yes” share on the PredictIt market was 90 cents -- which equates to a 90 percent chance of confirmation -- as of 2 p.m. in New York. If he’s confirmed by the Senate, the wager pays out $1 per share.

Less than two weeks ago, the cost of “yes” shares fell as low as 26 cents after the New Yorker magazine reported that a second woman, a Yale University classmate, had stepped forward with an accusation of sexual misconduct. (His confirmation was seen as a lock before Christine Blasey Ford accused Kavanaugh of sexual assault while in high school.)

The shares then fluctuated between 26 cents and 69 cents in the lead-up to Kavanaugh’s testimony before the Senate Judiciary Committee -- and closed at 74 cents on the day of the hearing, where he forcefully denied the allegations.

A major procedural vote in the Senate, which the GOP controls 51-49, is planned for Friday. A final vote on Kavanaugh could come as soon as Saturday.

To contact the reporter on this story: Brandon Kochkodin in New York at bkochkodin@bloomberg.net

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Joe Weisenthal at jweisenthal@bloomberg.net, Michael Tsang

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