Guaido’s Domain Trembles After Failed Incursion in Venezuela

(Bloomberg) -- In the days since Venezuela easily halted a bollixed coup led by an American, a shadow has fallen over Juan Guaido, the Washington-backed opposition chief. Some of his colleagues are questioning not only their faith in him but in the Trump administration’s approach to removing President Nicolas Maduro.

Opposition lawmakers have contacted the U.S. State Department to request a change of direction, even leadership, according to five people with direct knowledge of the matter. Several have suggested new negotiations with Maduro, while others want parliamentary elections. Guaido has rejected both.

Some say that the crisis spreading across the country from coronavirus quarantines and shortages presents an opportunity to win hearts and minds. They want subsidies for the poorest families to come from funds controlled by Guaido -- more social policy and less diplomatic grandstanding. One veteran opposition leader states flatly that Guaido’s leadership is over, although he says so on condition of anonymity.

To some extent, such maneuvering and infighting are an integral part of politics anywhere. The fact that the dissidents aren’t willing to speak on the record is evidence that they know they can’t win for now. In the main, opposition parties say that as long as Guaido keeps U.S. support, he won’t be replaced, at least not this year.

‘Backstabbing And Jealousy’

The Trump administration remains fully behind him. As one senior official said, “Backstabbing and jealousy are par for the course. We believe most of the opposition is united behind Juan Guaido.”

Still, he’s weaker than he’s ever been in the 16 months since Maduro’s re-election was dismissed as rigged and Guaido, who heads the democratically-elected National Assembly, was declared the legitimate interim president by the U.S. and more than 50 other countries.

“There is no way that Guaido will escape unscathed,” said Luis Vicente Leon, president of the Caracas pollster Datanalisis. Fourteen months ago, according to Leon’s polls, 63% of Venezuelans believed that a change of government was possible; today that figure is 20%.

Asked for comment, Guaido’s office said, “Replacing him would be detrimental to the democratic forces since he is the only leader who has managed to bring together broad international support against Maduro.”

Guaido’s latest problems are the result of his reaction to the recent botched raid led by a retired Green Beret. First, he said it had been staged by Maduro’s regime and he had no link to it. But the American leader of the operation, Jordan Goudreau, made public a contract he’d signed with two Guaido aides and a recording of a conversation with Guaido himself.

Aides Fired

Then, under pressure to fire the two, Guaido accepted their resignations. One of the men acknowledged the contract discussions with Goudreau but said he canceled participation in the operation when he saw how badly planned it was. Meanwhile, Guaido has avoided most journalists’ questions and remains on the defensive.

David Smilde, a Venezuela expert at Tulane University, thinks Guaido is going through his worst moment. “The botched incursion definitely erodes Guaido’s leadership both domestically and internationally,” he said. “His levels of approval were already declining steadily over the past months as he has not been able to deliver the quick transition he promised.” But Guaido remains the country’s most popular leader and Smilde says he’s still safe.

On the other hand, Caracas political analyst Dimitris Pantoulas said Guaido’s time seems over. “He has to make concessions to other political parties, and other political leaders will make more explicit criticism of what Guaido does and says,” he argued.

The ragtag invasion aside, opposition lawmakers complain that the strategy for unseating Maduro is held too tightly by Guaido, his mentor Leopoldo Lopez, and U.S. officials. The Trump administration has imposed severe sanctions on Venezuela as well as its top officials and charged many with drug trafficking.

U.S. Election

Several lawmakers say planning needs to be moved from Washington to Caracas with all parties consulted. Part of what’s driving American policy, they say, is the upcoming American election and President Donald Trump’s desire to win votes from Venezuelan and Cuban exiles in Florida.

Analyst Pantoulas reflected that sentiment, saying, “The U.S. strategy on Venezuela is interlinked with U.S. politics and U.S. voters and doesn’t always go hand-in-hand with the needs in Caracas.”

Justice First, one of the main opposition parties, issued a statement after the failed raid demanding new mechanisms for opposition decision making “so that unity is respected and the focus of struggle is on Maduro’s exit.” It said too much energy is being wasted on “the creation of a bureaucratic caste rather than on political change.”

Henrique Capriles, who founded Justice First, has been saying for months that Guaido’s failures of 2019 shouldn’t be permitted to occur again and that negotiations with Maduro are needed. His followers have suggested that he should replace Guaido.

‘Game Must Be Shuffled’

“What are you offering people in 2020?” Capriles said already in January. “The game must be shuffled.”

Several lawmakers want negotiations with Maduro for parliamentary elections this year. They believe the economic crisis will worsen, the hollowed out health system could collapse and the Maduro government might be forced to accept fair electoral conditions and humanitarian aid.

Venezuela is entering its third month of quarantine, with a shortage of basic goods and gasoline and an annual inflation of 3,173%, according to the Bloomberg Cafe con Leche Index.

In the end, many Venezuelans say their feelings about Guaido matter less than what a certain somebody up north is willing to risk to get rid of Maduro.

“If this were a movie, Guaido would be the supporting actor,” said Leon, the pollster. “The leading role is Trump’s.”

©2020 Bloomberg L.P.