Goldman Strategists Bet on Tourism-Linked Currencies in Recovery

(Bloomberg) -- Goldman Sachs Group Inc. strategists expect a tourism revival in the second half of 2022, with the Thai baht, New Zealand dollar and Egyptian equities among their top bets.

The firm predicts that the manufacturing-led economic recovery will shift to one driven by leisure and tourism as foreign visitors return to beaches and mountains after enduring nearly two grueling years of the coronavirus pandemic.

“We think you’re going to see a transition to a recovery driven by services and travel, and leisure would be an important part of that once the latest omicron wave fades,” Kamakshya Trivedi, Goldman’s co-head of global foreign exchange, rates and emerging-market strategy research, said in an interview.

Goldman is bullish too on the currencies of oil exporters including the Canadian dollar, Mexican peso and Russian ruble, and prefers to go short on the Australian dollar and euro.

In Thailand, where tourism accounted for a fifth of the nation’s pre-pandemic economy, the government is aiming to treat Covid-19 as endemic in 2022 by resuming normal activities, increasing immunizations and reducing hospitalizations, a senior health official said on Tuesday. 

In Spain, there are signs the industry is getting back on its feet, with tourists spending 678% more in November than they did a year ago. Europe’s travel and leisure stocks surged on Tuesday, with airlines including British Airways owner IAG SA and tour operator TUI AG both gaining more than 10%, as data continues to indicate omicron is less likely to cause serious illness.

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