Global Growth Baton, Trump Election Ace, EU Retaliation: Eco Day

(Bloomberg) --

Good morning Americas. Here’s the latest news and analysis from Bloomberg Economics to take you through to the weekend:

  • America’s days as pace-setter for the world economy may be coming to an end. With the International Monetary Fund releasing new forecasts on Monday, a rising number of economists are predicting that the U.S.’s momentum will fall behind that of the rest of the world as global growth bottoms out and looks set to slowly pick up in 2020.
    • While bombast from the Trump administration suggests the president can coast to re-election on robust economic tailwinds, the historically accurate misery index suggests a less clear-cut outcome, according to Bloomberg Economics’ Carl Riccadonna
    • Bloomberg Economics has also crunched the numbers on what would be required to make China’s commitment to $200 billion in additional imports from the U.S. in the next two years happen
  • The European Union’s trade chief said the race is on to avert an escalation in transatlantic commercial tensions as a result of U.S. objections to a French digital-services tax
    • France warned the U.S. that retaliation will come fast if Washington puts more tariffs on French products
  • China’s economy stabilized last quarter, growing at the same rate in the third quarter, with industrial output and investment accelerating at the end of the year
  • British consumers shunned stores during the crucial Christmas trading period, confounding predictions of a rebound in spending and stoking speculation that the Bank of England will cut interest rates this month
  • European Central Bank watchers are almost unanimous that President Christine Lagarde will change the bank’s inflation goal. Meanwhile, at her first meeting as ECB chief started with calls for “vigilance” on the efficacy of current stimulus measures, even as officials agreed to maintain their stance for now
  • Finally, here’s the collection of this week’s analysis, scoops and enterprise from Bloomberg Economics

©2020 Bloomberg L.P.

BQ Install

Bloomberg Quint

Add BloombergQuint App to Home screen.