The Data Show a Bleak Outlook for Global Economic Growth

(Bloomberg Markets) -- There’s always growth somewhere, even amid a pandemic that has claimed more than a million lives and trillions of dollars of business activity. Below, Bloomberg Markets examines the data to find this year’s economic winners—and some hope for the years ahead.

Lost Years

The world’s most influential economies will be feeling the pandemic’s effects for years. Eight members of the Group of 20 will have a smaller gross domestic product in 2022 than they did in 2019, according to forecasts by Bloomberg Economics. Just six will have grown more than 2% in that time.

Growth Disappears From Most of the World

In 2020 almost all economies on the planet will shrink, according to a World Bank forecast. By contrast, in 2019 almost 4 out of 5 grew. It’s not an exaggeration to say this year has surpassed every recession in modern history.

Fits and Starts for Global Trade

A stuttering recovery may hinge on whether the electronics industry rebound survives U.S. bans on Chinese technology.

Expanding in the Face of Historic Contraction

Not all nations have been equally hurt. In June the World Bank identified 30 emerging-market and developing economies it expects to grow this year. Some are recovering faster; others have idiosyncratic growth drivers or are less exposed to external shocks.

In the U.S., Alternative and High-Frequency Data Show a Slow and Patchy Recovery

Gauges of activity suggest the U.S. is in the midst of a gradual recovery, with improvement across a variety of indicators in August and September. Still, uneven progress in controlling the virus has left the economy far below its pre-pandemic output.

Comebacks Around the World

Driven largely by China’s rebound, emerging markets have returned to form at a faster pace than developed nations.

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