The Data Show a Bleak Outlook for Global Economic Growth

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There’s always growth somewhere, even amid a pandemic that has claimed more than a million lives and trillions of dollars of business activity. Below, Bloomberg Markets examines the data to find this year’s economic winners—and some hope for the years ahead.

The Data Show a Bleak Outlook for Global Economic Growth

Lost Years

The world’s most influential economies will be feeling the pandemic’s effects for years. Eight members of the Group of 20 will have a smaller gross domestic product in 2022 than they did in 2019, according to forecasts by Bloomberg Economics. Just six will have grown more than 2% in that time.

The Data Show a Bleak Outlook for Global Economic Growth

Growth Disappears From Most of the World

In 2020 almost all economies on the planet will shrink, according to a World Bank forecast. By contrast, in 2019 almost 4 out of 5 grew. It’s not an exaggeration to say this year has surpassed every recession in modern history.

The Data Show a Bleak Outlook for Global Economic Growth

Fits and Starts for Global Trade

A stuttering recovery may hinge on whether the electronics industry rebound survives U.S. bans on Chinese technology.

The Data Show a Bleak Outlook for Global Economic Growth

Expanding in the Face of Historic Contraction

Not all nations have been equally hurt. In June the World Bank identified 30 emerging-market and developing economies it expects to grow this year. Some are recovering faster; others have idiosyncratic growth drivers or are less exposed to external shocks.

The Data Show a Bleak Outlook for Global Economic Growth

In the U.S., Alternative and High-Frequency Data Show a Slow and Patchy Recovery

Gauges of activity suggest the U.S. is in the midst of a gradual recovery, with improvement across a variety of indicators in August and September. Still, uneven progress in controlling the virus has left the economy far below its pre-pandemic output.

The Data Show a Bleak Outlook for Global Economic Growth

Comebacks Around the World

Driven largely by China’s rebound, emerging markets have returned to form at a faster pace than developed nations.

The Data Show a Bleak Outlook for Global Economic Growth

©2020 Bloomberg L.P.

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