Ghana Inflation Rate Climbs to Four-Year High, Beating Forecasts

(Bloomberg) -- Ghana’s inflation rate increased to the highest in more than four years in November, exceeding the central bank’s target band for a third straight month as food and transport costs climbed. 

Annual inflation accelerated to 12.2% from 11% in October, Government Statistician Samuel Kobina Annim told reporters Wednesday in Accra, the capital. That’s the highest level since August 2017.

The median estimate of five economists in a Bloomberg survey was 11.2%. Prices climbed 1.4% in the month.

The data is unlikely to persuade Ghana’s central bank, which targets price growth within a range of 6% to 10%, to raise interest rates next month as it waits to see whether November’s 100-basis point increase arrests inflation.

The effects of that hike are expected to temper inflation from December through January, Courage Martey, an economist at Accra-based Databank Group said ahead of the release.

Price-growth should also ebb because of “at least an average harvest” next year that’s expected to help “food inflation to soften, off the high base of 2021,” Yvonne Mhango, Renaissance Capital’s head of research for Africa, said in a note earlier this month. 

A separate Bloomberg survey of 10 economists forecast inflation will average 9% in 2022. 

Risks to the outlook include new taxes such as a levy on mobile-money transactions announced in the 2022 budget, Martey said, and a weaker cedi. The currency has declined almost 5% against the dollar this year, pushing up import costs.

Food inflation, which has been the headline number’s main driver, quickened to 13.1% from a revised 11.5% in October, while non-food price-growth accelerated to 11.6% from 11%, partially fueled by higher transport costs.

Yields on Ghana dollar bonds maturing in 2026 increased to 10.2496% after the release from 10.2477% just before the data was published on Wednesday. 

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