Germany Infection Rate Stays Below Key Threshold, New Cases Fall

Germany’s coronavirus infection rate stayed below the key threshold of 1.0 for a fifth day, and the number of new cases remained far below the level at the height of the outbreak.

  • The reproduction factor -- or R value -- rose to 0.71 on Sunday, from 0.62 the previous day, according to the latest estimate by the country’s health body, the Robert Koch Institute. This is far from the infection rates seen a week ago, when local outbreaks and increased testing lifted the number as high as 2.88.
  • The current estimate means that out of 100 people infected, a further 71 are likely to contract the virus. A number below 1.0 is seen as preventing exponential growth in the number of cases and a second wave of infections.
  • There were 235 new cases in the 24 hours through Monday morning, down from 422 the previous day and bringing the total to 194,693, according to data from Johns Hopkins University. That compares with an average of 541 new infections in the previous 7 days and almost 7,000 at the peak of the pandemic in late March.
  • There were no new fatalities recorded, with the total number of deaths holding at 8,968.
  • The jump in the infection rate from around June 20 was driven by local outbreaks, including in two municipalities in the western state of North Rhine-Westphalia.
  • “The outbreak dynamics are also influenced in part by serial tests performed among possibly exposed persons, which led to the rapid detection of large numbers of additional COVID-19 cases” in some of the outbreaks, RKI said.
  • Due to the low number of cases in Germany, local outbreaks have a relatively strong influence on the value of the reproduction number, according to the institute.
  • The RKI also provides a seven-day R value, which compensates for fluctuations. That value was 0.71 on Sunday, down from 0.83 the previous day.

©2020 Bloomberg L.P.

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