German Virus Infection Rate Edges Higher; New Cases Hold Steady

(Bloomberg) -- Germany’s coronavirus infection rate inched higher, while the number of new cases stayed significantly below the level at the height of the outbreak.

• There were 560 new cases in the 24 hours through Friday morning, bringing the total to 201,450, according to data from Johns Hopkins University. That compares with 434 the previous day and almost 7,000 at the peak of the pandemic in late March.
• There were seven new fatalities, increasing the total to 9,087. The daily death toll has remained below 50 since the end of May.
• The reproduction factor of the virus, known as R-naught, rose to 1.10 on Thursday from 1.02 the day before, according to the latest estimate from the Robert Koch Institute. That means 100 infected people are estimated to pass it onto 110 others.
• The government is trying to keep the figure below 1.0 to prevent a second wave of infections, and on Thursday tightened travel rules to stop further outbreaks as the summer vacation season gets under way.
• The R-0 number represents the course of infection approximately one to two weeks ago and is sensitive to short-term changes in case numbers, such as those caused by local outbreaks and the increased testing that comes with them. This can lead to relatively large fluctuations in the figure especially Germany’s low number of new cases, according to the institute.
• The RKI also provides a 7-day R-value, which better compensates for fluctuations. That value was 1.07 on Thursday, up from 0.95 the previous day.

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