German New Cases Hold Steady, Infection Rate Edges Lower

Germany’s coronavirus infection rate dipped, while the number of new cases stayed significantly below the level at the height of the outbreak.

  • There were 261 new cases in the 24 hours through Tuesday morning, bringing the total to 200,180, according to data from Johns Hopkins University. That compares with 210 the previous day and almost 7,000 at the peak of the pandemic in late March.
  • There were three new fatalities, increasing the total to 9,074. The daily death toll has remained below 50 since the end of May.
  • The reproduction factor of the virus, known as R-naught, fell to 1.0 on Monday from 1.04 the day before, according to the latest estimate from the Robert Koch Institute. That means 100 infected people are estimated to infect 100 others. The 95% prediction interval means the number is somewhere between 0.78 and 1.25.
  • The government is trying to keep the figure below 1.0 to prevent a second wave of infections.
  • Germany’s health minister on Monday warned of the risks as tourists, tired of restrictions at home, partied at their favorite beaches in Spain. “The danger of a second wave is real,” Jens Spahn said.
  • The R-0 number represents the course of infection approximately one to two weeks ago and is sensitive to short-term changes in case numbers, such as those caused by local outbreaks and the increased testing that comes with them. This can lead to relatively large fluctuations in the figure especially Germany’s low number of new cases, according to the institute.
  • The RKI also provides a 7-day R-value, which better compensates for fluctuations. That value was 0.83 on Monday, down from 0.91 the previous day.

©2020 Bloomberg L.P.

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