German New Cases Hold Steady, Infection Rate Below Threshold

Germany’s coronavirus infection rate remained below the key threshold of 1.0, while the number of new cases stayed far below the level at the height of the outbreak.

  • The reproduction factor -- or R value -- dropped to 0.81 on Tuesday from 0.97 the previous day, according to the latest estimate by the country’s health body, the Robert Koch Institute. It remains well below the levels reached last month, when local outbreaks and increased testing lifted the number as high as 2.88.
  • The current estimate means that 100 infected people will likely pass on the virus to a further 81. A number below 1.0 is seen as preventing exponential growth in the number of cases and a second wave of infections.
  • There were 279 new cases in the 24 hours through Wednesday morning, bringing the total to 198,343, according to data from Johns Hopkins University. That compares with an average of 432 in the last seven days and is significantly below the almost 7,000 recorded at the peak of the pandemic in late March.
  • There were 10 new fatalities, with the total number of deaths rising to 9,032. The number of deaths caused by the virus has remained under 50 for almost six weeks.
  • The virus reproduction factor reflects the infection situation about one to two weeks ago, according to the RKI, and reacts sensitively to short-term changes in case numbers, such as those caused by individual outbreaks.
  • The RKI also provides a seven-day R value designed to compensate for fluctuations. That value was 0.84 on Tuesday, down from 0.89 the previous day.

©2020 Bloomberg L.P.

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