German New Cases Fall, Infection Rate Back Above Key Threshold

Germany recorded a decline in the number of new coronavirus cases, while the infection rate rose above the key threshold of 1.0 for the first time in almost three weeks.

  • There were 210 new cases in the 24 hours through Monday morning, bringing the total to 199,919, according to data from Johns Hopkins University. That compares with 377 the previous day and almost 7,000 at the peak of the pandemic in late March.
  • There was one new fatality, bringing the total to 9,071. The daily death toll has remained below 50 since the end of May.
  • The reproduction factor of the virus, known as R-naught, rose to 1.04 on Sunday from 0.93 the day before, according to the latest estimate from the Robert Koch Institute. That means 100 infected people are estimated to infect 104 others. The 95% prediction interval means the number is somewhere between 0.81 and 1.26.
  • The government is trying to keep the figure below 1.0 to prevent exponential growth in the number of cases and a second wave of infections.
  • The R-0 number represents the course of infection approximately one to two weeks ago and is sensitive to short-term changes in case numbers, such as those caused by local outbreaks and the increased testing that comes with them. This can lead to relatively large fluctuations in the estimated R-value, especially if, as is currently the case in Germany, the total number of new cases is small, according to the institute.
  • The RKI also provides a 7-day R-value, which compensates for fluctuations more effectively. That value was 0.91 on Sunday, down from 0.93 the previous day.

©2020 Bloomberg L.P.

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