German Infection Rate Stays Around Key Threshold; Cases in Check

(Bloomberg) --

Germany’s coronavirus infection rate fell to 1.0, a key threshold for epidemiologists, after hovering above it for three days. The number of new cases remained far below the level at the height of the outbreak.

  • The reproduction factor of the virus, known as R-naught, fell to 1.0 on Tuesday, compared with 1.19 the day before, according to a daily report by the Robert Koch Institute.
  • The government is trying to keep the figure below 1.0 to prevent exponential growth in the number of cases and a second wave of infections.
    • NOTE: The RKI said yesterday there were major outbreaks in retirement and nursing homes, such as in the districts of Greiz and Verden, where residents and nursing staff tested positive for the virus.
    • An entire apartment building with 369 tenants in the southeastern Neukoelln borough in Berlin was quarantined over the weekend. More than 50 people there have contracted the virus, with many more still to be tested.
  • There were 570 new infections in the 24 hours through Wednesday morning, bringing the total to 188,252 according to data from Johns Hopkins University. That compares with 164 the previous day and almost 7,000 at the peak of the pandemic in late March.
  • Fatalities increased by 13 to 8,820. The daily death toll has stayed well below 100 since mid-May.
  • The R-0 number represents the course of infection approximately one to two weeks ago and is sensitive to short-term changes, such as local outbreaks, especially if the number of new cases is relatively low, according to the health institute.
  • The RKI also provides a seven-day R-value, which compensates for fluctuations. That value was 0.86 on Tuesday, down from 0.95 the previous day.

©2020 Bloomberg L.P.

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