German Election, Debt Limit Fight, Supply Issues: Eco Day

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Welcome to Monday, Americas. Here’s the latest news and analysis from Bloomberg Economics to help you start the day:

• The U.S. is heading to a fiscal precipice as Republicans and Democrats fight over who should act on raising the debt ceiling
• A senior Federal Reserve economist has slammed the profession for relying on propositions “that ‘everyone knows’ to be true, but that are actually arrant nonsense,” including the role of inflation expectations
• Bloomberg Economics warns that Germany’s ambiguous election outcome likely means an extended period of uncertainty for financial markets and fiscal policy
• The pandemic has convulsed global supply chains on such a scale that few industries, socio-economic classes or regions are immune and most experts see at least another six months before any return to normal.
  • The delta variant’s blow to global supply chains appears to be moderating, but the Bloomberg Trade Tracker suggests there’s been some lasting damage
• A heavy lift awaits on the economy for the winner of a party leadership vote this week to pick Japan’s third pandemic-era prime minister
• China’s economic momentum remained stable in September but domestic spending is weakening amid stringent virus control measures and tightening curbs on the property market
  • Economists warned of lower economic growth in China as electricity shortages worsen in the country, forcing businesses to cut back on production.
• Global monetary policy looks set to stay super easy well into 2022 even as central banks edge closer to dialing back their emergency support in the face of mounting inflation pressures
• Finally, here’s what to look for in the world economy this week

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