German Cases Steady, Infection Rate Holds Below Key Threshold

(Bloomberg) -- Germany’s coronavirus infection rate remained below the key threshold of 1.0 for a ninth day, and the number of new cases held far below the level at the height of the outbreak.

• The reproduction factor -- or R value -- edged down to 0.83 on Thursday, from 0.86 the previous day, according to the latest estimate by the country’s health body, the Robert Koch Institute. It remains well below the level it reached last month, when local outbreaks and increased testing lifted the number as high as 2.88.
• The current estimate means that out of 100 people infected, a further 83 are likely to contract the virus. A number below 1.0 is seen as preventing exponential growth in the number of cases and a second wave of infections.
• There were 477 new cases in the 24 hours through Friday morning, compared with 475 recorded the previous day, and bringing the total to 196,370, according to data from Johns Hopkins University. That compares with an average of 432 in the past 7 days and almost 7,000 at the peak of the pandemic in late March.
• There were 11 new fatalities, with the total number of deaths rising to 9,006.

• The virus reproduction factor may continue to fluctuate markedly, according to the RKI, since the current low number of new cases means that local incidents have a relatively strong influence.
• The RKI also provides a seven-day R value designed to compensate for fluctuations. That value was also 0.83 on Thursday, up from 0.79 the previous day.

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