German Cases Hold Steady, Infection Rate Stays Below Benchmark

(Bloomberg) -- Germany’s coronavirus infection rate remained below the key threshold of 1.0, while the number of new cases stayed much lower than the level at the height of the outbreak.

• The reproduction factor -- or R value -- edged up to 0.97 on Monday from 0.96 the previous day, according to the latest estimate by the country’s health body, the Robert Koch Institute. It remains well below the levels reached last month, when local outbreaks and increased testing lifted the number as high as 2.88.
• The current estimate means that out of 100 people infected, a further 97 are likely to contract the virus. A number below 1.0 is seen as preventing exponential growth in the number of cases and a second wave of infections.
• There were 541 new cases in the 24 hours through Tuesday morning, bringing the total to 198,064, according to data from Johns Hopkins University. While that’s the highest number of daily infections since June 27, it’s significantly below the 7,000 recorded at the peak of the pandemic in late March.
• The total number of deaths was adjusted one lower to 9,022. Daily fatalities have stayed well below 100 for almost two months.
• The virus reproduction factor may continue to fluctuate markedly, according to the RKI, since the current low number of new cases means that local incidents have a relatively strong impact.
• The RKI also provides a seven-day R value designed to compensate for fluctuations. That value was 0.89 on Monday, down from 0.94 the previous day.

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