German Cases Hold Steady, Infection Rate Stays Below Benchmark

(Bloomberg) -- Germany’s coronavirus infection rate remained below the key threshold of 1.0, and the number of new cases stayed much lower than the levels at the height of the outbreak.

• The reproduction factor -- or R value -- edged higher to 0.86 on Wednesday from 0.83 the previous day, according to the latest estimate by the country’s health body, the Robert Koch Institute. The value remains far below its level last week, when local outbreaks and increased testing lifted the number as high as 2.88.
• The current estimate means that out of 100 people infected, a further 86 are likely to contract the virus. A number below 1.0 is seen as preventing exponential growth in the number of cases and a second wave of infections.
• There were 475 new cases in the 24 hours through Thursday morning, up from 376 the previous day and bringing the total to 195,893, according to data from Johns Hopkins University. That compares with almost 7,000 at the peak of the pandemic in late March.
• There were 5 new fatalities, with the total number of deaths rising to 8,995.
• The virus reproduction factor may continue to fluctuate markedly, according to the RKI, since the current low number of new cases means that local incidents have a relatively strong influence.
• The RKI also provides a seven-day R value designed to compensate for fluctuations. That value was 0.79 on Wednesday, up from 0.67 the previous day.

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