Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day
Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day
(Bloomberg) --
Good morning. Theresa May is hanging on by a thread, the Federal Reserve is being very patient and the world is awaiting a full-blown response from China on trade. Here’s what’s moving markets.
Chaos
Speculation was rife that Prime Minister Theresa May could be pushed out of her job by Wednesday but she has remained steadfast even in the face of near certain defeat for her deal. Her job is hanging by a thread and was put under further pressure when Andrea Leadsom, a high-profile pro-Brexit Cabinet minister, resigned. Pound investors are bailing out of the currency as the uncertainty about who will be running the country, and indeed who will handle further negotiations with the European Union, increases exponentially. And it’s all happening just as European Parliament elections begin.
Be Patient
One could have surmised this from the cavalcade of Federal Reserve board members who have spoken over the course of this week, but the central bank’s meeting minutes confirmed it intends to stay in wait-and-see mode for some time. Staying patient on the rate path for “some time” is how the bank intends to proceed, resulting in limited impact on markets. New York Fed President John Williams had already said there is no strong argument for moving rates in either direction right now, while central banks are facing calls to hike inflation targets in unison.
The Response
The week has been dominated by the U.S. ratcheting up tensions with China, putting various companies onto blacklists and hobbling their international appeal. China’s response is increasingly the focus as a full-blown trade war becomes the baseline assumption rather than just a risk. Goldman Sachs Inc. thinks the odds of a continued stalemate are high. The EU is also waiting to get into trade talks with the U.S., but isn’t sure the latter is ready for that yet. The trade war has, however, put the dollar back on its throne.
The State of Autos
An auto industry health check is probably in order. At first glance, it’s not great. The number of jobs slashed by big carmakers in the past six months has hit around 38,000 and counting, with Daimler’s outgoing boss warning deep savings will be needed to gird the industry for the huge upheaval of shifting to electric and automated vehicles. Taking much of the attention in the industry is still Elon Musk’s Tesla Inc. It has had a torrid week dominated by bearish analysts who are now branding the electric car firm a “restructuring story.” Perhaps not what an investor would want to hear when the industry is mired in this kind of existential crisis.
Coming up...
Investor concerns about trade tensions increased once more and have sent Asian shares lower. European futures are pointing to a weak open, too, and oil is falling on higher U.S. inventories and those trade jitters. Minutes from the European Central Bank’s latest policy meeting are due, along with euro area PMIs, German GDP and a rate decision from South Africa for emerging market watchers to pore over after its inflation missed target and it officially elected its president. Indian election results are also pouring in and have sent local stocks to highs.
What We’ve Been Reading
This is what’s caught our eye in the past 24 hours.
- How would you lead the European Union?
- Rockefeller was much richer than Bezos.
- Wealthy Chinese people don’t buy superyachts.
- Economics reinvents itself once a decade. That’s happening now.
- How the extinction of the human race could play out.
- Bacon salt is the answer.
- What English soccer says about immigration and Brexit.
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