Fed Election Pressure, Double-Dip Reality, Canada Jobs: Eco Day

Welcome to Thursday, Americas. Here’s the latest news and analysis from Bloomberg Economics to help you start the day:

  • The tightly contested U.S. election puts pressure on the Fed to deploy even more monetary stimulus to support the economy under a divided government.
    • Chair Jerome Powell will likely avoid discussing election results at Thursday’s press conference and instead stress the urgency for further fiscal support, writes Yelena Shulyatyeva
  • Double-dip recession moves from risk to reality in major economies, according to Bloomberg Economics gauges that integrate high-frequency data such as mobility, energy consumption and public transport usage
    • Europe’s economy, freshly battered by coronavirus restrictions, is facing a sluggish recovery next year that leaves it open to rising company failures and long-term unemployment
    • The European Commission cut its forecast for 2021 U.K. economic growth almost in half, in its first ever regular outlook based on the assumption that negotiations for a post-Brexit trade accord will yield no result
    • The U.S. economy just came off a pretty good quarter, at an annual rate of 33.1%, the strongest ever in records going back to 1948. Economist Jim Paulsen says there’s more where that came, because consumers have lots of savings and pent-up demand
  • A second wave of Covid-19 is threatening to reverse Canada’s labor market recovery
  • The U.S. Department of Commerce is imposing a preliminary anti-subsidy tariff on car and truck tires from Vietnam, citing the Southeast Asian nation’s “undervalued currency” among the reasons for the decision
  • Global food prices remain on a tear as tightening crop markets boost grain costs by the most in eight years

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