Fed Easing Bets Firm After Jerome Powell Flags Downside Economic Risks

(Bloomberg) -- Traders boosted the amount of easing they expect from the Federal Reserve this month and beyond as Chairman Jerome Powell emphasized persistent risks to the economy.

The market firmed in its conviction that a quarter-point cut is coming at the end of this month. Traders also dialed up bets on an even bigger July shift as Powell responded to questions from U.S. lawmakers in Washington, including one directly on the possibility of such a move. The market is now pricing in almost three quarters of a point of easing by the end of 2019 and short-dated Treasury rates have fallen sharply, taking the two-year yield as low as 1.82%. The dollar also weakened, while U.S. stocks are firmer on the day.

Powell’s testimony appears to have reassured traders that the rebound in payrolls reported last week won’t deter policy makers from a July move. The Fed chairman himself said Wednesday that the strength of hiring in June had not changed the central bank’s thinking.

“Powell fully endorsed the July rate cut and did absolutely nothing to pull the markets back from that expectation,” Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer at Bleakley Financial Group, said in a note.

While Powell appears to have removed doubts about whether a rate cut is on the way, market debate over the size of this month’s move is heating up. Columbia Threadneedle senior strategist Ed Al-Hussainy said after Powell’s initial statement that traders might be getting ahead of themselves pricing in more than a quarter-point move this month, as there’s no evidence so far of broad support for more-aggressive action among the members of the Federal Open Market Committee.

“The case for a 50 basis points cut in July is very strong, but there isn’t a strong base for it on the FOMC,” he said. “Even on the more dovish side of the spectrum, the voices have been lukewarm.”

Morgan Stanley and UBS are among those market watchers still looking for a half-point cut, while Barclays pared its July call back to 25 basis points.

Pressed during his Congressional testimony on what would justify a larger move, Powell stuck to general references about a “broad range of data” informing the Fed’s decision, along with the “extent to which trade and global growth are weighing on the outlook,” and the path of inflation.

Ben Emons at Medley Global Advisors said Powell’s emphasis on the risks to global growth are a tilt in the direction of more action, and noted the market has raised the odds of a half-point cut.

“Powell’s statement reopens the door to the possibility of a 50 basis point cut. The market definitely had that wrong by being too single-data-point minded,” the strategist wrote in a note.

The implied rate on fed funds futures for August -- which indicates where the market reckons the central bank’s key rate will be after its July 31 decision -- has fallen to 2.09%. That suggests around 32 basis points of easing from the most recent effective fed funds rate of 2.41%, or more than the usual quarter-point sized move that the central bank tends to make.

The implied rate for August had been around 2.16% just before the release of Powell’s remarks. Meanwhile, the yield on the January contract -- an indicator for year-end rates -- slid to 1.70% from 1.80% before the testimony, and the U.S. dollar slipped as much as 0.4% against the yen.

Treasury Yields

As rate cut wagers strengthened, the decline in yields across the Treasuries market also pulled the 10-year benchmark down roughly five basis points from where it was just before Powell’s testimony, to around 2.05%. The sharper drop in two-year rates drove the yield curve steeper to around 22 basis points, reversing its recent flattening trend.

The U.S. dollar’s decline, meanwhile, was consistent with Powell’s testimony, according to Bipan Rai, North American head of foreign-exchange strategy at Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce. But he also said the market’s reluctance to price in a half-point Fed cut for July should keep the currency supported.

--With assistance from Benjamin Purvis, Alyce Andres and David Wilson.

To contact the reporters on this story: Emily Barrett in New York at ebarrett25@bloomberg.net;Liz Capo McCormick in New York at emccormick7@bloomberg.net

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Benjamin Purvis at bpurvis@bloomberg.net, Mark Tannenbaum

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