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Fastest Inflation in Euro’s History Set to Raise Pressure on ECB

Fastest Inflation in Euro’s History Set to Raise Pressure on ECB

The euro zone is now enduring the fastest inflation since the single currency was founded at the end of the 20th century, economists say. 

Consumer prices in the 19-country region rose 4.5% in November, according to the median of 40 estimates in a Bloomberg survey before the statistics due Tuesday. Every respondent predicts an acceleration from last month’s level of 4.1%, which already matched the fastest since the 2008 financial crisis. 

In Germany, the region’s biggest economy, the cost-of-living squeeze is arguably even greater, with the median estimate for inflation data on Monday now at 5.5%. The Bundesbank warned this week that the outcome there could even reach close to 6%. 

Fastest Inflation in Euro’s History Set to Raise Pressure on ECB

Such unprecedented price spikes, reflecting surging energy costs and global supply bottlenecks, will add to the communication challenge of the European Central Bank, whose policy makers soon face a major decision on the future of stimulus. They insist this bout of inflation is transitory, while underlying pressures remain too weak to be self-sustaining.

“We don’t expect it to alter the European Central Bank’s assessment of underlying price pressures before its December meeting,” Maeva Cousin, an economist at Bloomberg Economics, said in a report Friday previewing the data. “Underlying pressures are likely to remain more stable.”

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A core measure of prices that strips out volatile items such as energy and food is also jumping. The outcome of 2.3% median prediction for that would be the highest since 2002. 

The highest prediction for headline euro-zone inflation in the survey is by Capital Economics, whose economists expect 4.7%. The lowest is 4.2%, anticipated by six forecasters including Bank of America. 

©2021 Bloomberg L.P.