European Confidence, Trade Ripples, Italy's ECB Push: Eco Day

(Bloomberg) -- Go inside the global economy with Stephanie Flanders in her new podcast, Stephanomics. Subscribe via Pocket Cast or iTunes.

Welcome to Tuesday, Americas. Here’s the latest news and analysis from Bloomberg Economics to help get your day started:

• Euro-area economic confidence unexpectedly improved in May, snapping an almost yearlong streak of declines when the region was battling through a host of struggles
• Bloomberg economists Dan Hanson and Tom Orlik have mapped out the main scenarios of the U.S.-China trade war. Their conclusion: global GDP could take a $600 billion hit in 2021, the year of peak impact
  • If you want to gauge China’s stimulus response, you should watch the job market, according to their colleagues Qian Wan and Chang Shu
  • There are winners though. Vietnam was one of the fastest-growing sources of American imports from Asia last quarter, and could potentially overtake the U.K. as a bigger supplier to the U.S. if it keeps up that pace
• Trade concerns are also being felt in Sweden. The largest Nordic economy is feeling the weakness that’s already hit the euro area, exports are losing momentum and domestic demand is being held back by a wobbly housing market
• Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s government gave lawmakers formal notice it intends to bring forward legislation to ratify the new North American free trade agreement
• Chile’s central bank started to consider cutting its benchmark interest rate as policy makers puzzled over the impact of a large influx of immigrants on the economy
• Italy will seek a seat on the European Central Bank’s Executive Board and use it to push the institution to buy bonds to fund infrastructure projects, according to a senior lawmaker in the coalition government
• Swiss economic growth accelerated more than economists expected in the first quarter, joining the upturn seen across much of Europe at the start of the year

To contact the reporter on this story: Lucy Meakin in London at lmeakin1@bloomberg.net

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Paul Gordon at pgordon6@bloomberg.net, Brian Swint

©2019 Bloomberg L.P.