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Brussels Edition: It Could Be Worse

Brussels Edition: It Could Be Worse

(Bloomberg) -- Welcome to the Brussels Edition, Bloomberg’s daily briefing on what matters most in the heart of the European Union.

Old divisions notwithstanding, Europe is inching closer to an economic response package to cushion the blow from the steepest recession in living memory. Amid dire warnings from Christine Lagarde, leaders all seem on board with discussing plans in the magnitude of 1 trillion to 1.5 trillion euros — likely including “leverage” as well as real money. They also agreed on the urgency of the situation, which explains why some red lines seem to be fading. But there are still key details to be sorted out, including the balance between loans and direct transfers to the countries in need, and a meeting in person may be needed for everything to be agreed. Until it does, and the longer it takes, the ECB president’s warning of doing “too little, too late” still stands. 

What’s Happening

Virus Update | The coronavirus is leading to Europe’s highest deaths in decades. Spain recorded almost 49,000 total fatalities last month, the most for March since 1975, the year dictator Francisco Franco died, while the U.K. reported its biggest weekly tally in 20 years. And it’s not over yet: Spain just reported its most deaths in a week. Here’s the latest.

Sinking Fast | Lagarde’s warning to Europe’s leaders that the euro-area economy risks shrinking as much as 15% this year was backed up by grim data. With companies struggling to stay afloat during lockdowns, an estimate of private-sector activity in the euro area plunged to the lowest level on record. Could the slump be worse than we fear?

Still Talking | Overshadowed by the virus crisis, Brexit is out of the spotlight, and you’d be forgiven for not realizing that EU-U.K. talks have been taking place by video link this week. Michel Barnier, the bloc’s chief negotiator, will address the press this afternoon and is expected to outline the huge differences that still separate the two sides.

Drink Up | It’s times like these when we need a drink, and with much of the world in lockdown and fairs canceled, wine tasters in Brazil, Mexico and Germany are swishing and swirling in front of laptops as the industry turns to meeting apps like Zoom to connect with clients. In Ireland meanwhile, one pub proprietor is keeping his glass half full.

In Case You Missed It

Case By Case | France will lift its lockdown on a case-by-case basis in another clue as to how countries will begin to open up again. President Emmanuel Macron told mayors yesterday that the end of restrictions will happen within a “national framework” that can be adapted locally, depending on health conditions and public transport.

Coronavirus Election | Poland’s plan to hold a presidential ballot on May 10 is a “farce,” the outgoing Supreme Court chief justice said in a  Bloomberg interview. With opposition candidates halting campaigning after the government imposed a strict lockdown, plans to host the vote via an untested mail-in system, that isn’t yet in place, are drawing scorn.

Junk Shield | The ECB will accept junk debt as collateral for its loans to shield some of Europe’s most vulnerable economies from losing investment-grade ratings. Italy is seen by the market as being most at risk. The ECB will also likely will increase emergency bond-buying in the coming months to ramp up support for the struggling euro area.

Orban Blinks | Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s decade-long drive to shield the country’s economy from outside influence was derailed, at least temporarily. The government quadrupled the amount it targets to borrow on international markets to fund its stimulus response. It’s also set to decide on easing lockdown measures next week.

Despotic Tastes | Ever wondered how dictators from Idi Amin to Enver Hoxha liked to eat? Whether they wanted more salt, or even if rumors about Amin eating the blood and livers of his enemies are true? Wonder no more.

Chart of the Day

Brussels Edition: It Could Be Worse

As governments dedicate more than $8 trillion to fight the coronavirus pandemic, a further widening in the gap between rich and poor countries threatens to exacerbate the global economy’s pain. Wealthy nations like Germany and Italy have delved deep to cushion the blow. But many African and Latin American economies have failed to reach even a few billion dollars in fiscal aid.

Today’s Agenda

All times CET.

  • 1:15 p.m. EU’s chief Brexit negotiator Barnier gives press conference
  • 2 p.m. EU’s Competition Commissioner Margrethe Vestager and former WTO chief discuss how virus outbreak affects Europe’s “digital sovereignty” via webcast
  • 2 p.m. Live chat with Environment Commissioner Virginijus Sinkevicius on a “A Green Recovery for Europe”
  • Videoconference of the G-20 tourism ministers

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