Erdogan Wants UN Spot With a Busy Trump to Deliver Syria Goals
Erdogan Wants UN Spot With a Busy Trump to Deliver Syria Goals
(Bloomberg) -- Recep Tayyip Erdogan wants to press Donald Trump this week to help deliver two key Turkish security goals in Syria, but he might struggle for the U.S. president’s attention.
Turkey is looking to expand a previously agreed zone in northern Syria that’s designed to be off limits to U.S.-allied Kurdish fighters Ankara despises, and which could be used to resettle Syrian refugees who fled to Turkey.
The deal was a significant achievement for two administrations often at loggerheads, and Erdogan now hopes to use his personal chemistry with Trump to push his case at the United Nations General Assembly.
Erdogan sees a sit-down meeting as the best way to circumvent U.S. government opposition to his policies and overcome problems poisoning the relationship. Last year, he convinced Trump during a phone call to withdraw American forces supporting the Syrian Kurds. Getting time with a U.S. president who’s entangled in more domestic wrangling, trade disputes and the confrontation with Iran is critical.
“There is a significant asymmetry of interest and preparation leading up to the Erdogan-Trump meeting,” according to Aaron Stein, director of the Middle East program at the Foreign Policy Research Institute in Philadelphia.
For Erdogan, “the meeting serves as yet another potential turning point to win more concessions from Trump on Syria. A top priority,” he wrote on Twitter. “For Trump, the meeting hardly registers.”
Even if the two leaders don’t have scheduled discussions, there’s a good chance they’ll cross paths at the UN. Trump is the second head of state to speak on Tuesday. Erdogan’s the fourth. If they do meet, possible U.S. sanctions on Turkey’s economy and a likely fine against one of its largest lenders, Halkbank, over sanctions busting will be on the agenda.
But Syria is likely to dominate.
American backing for the Kurdish YPG in the north of the war-torn country, where the militia played a leading role in defeating Islamic State, has been at the heart of Turkey-U.S. tensions. Erdogan sees the fighters as a top threat due to their links to the banned separatist PKK -- a group Turkey has been fighting for decades and is considered a terrorist organization by the U.S. and EU.
In a sign that the enclave deal helped at least partially repair ties, a pair of Turkish F-16 jets on Monday took part in the U.S.-led campaign against Islamic State for the first time in four years.
Still, Turkey says the U.S. must go further to keep the accord from unraveling, and Erdogan has again vowed a unilateral military incursion if he doesn’t get his way. He made similar threats last year before the phone call in which Trump abruptly ordered a pull out of American troops.
Erdogan Vows to Act Alone If No Syria Buffer Zone by Month’s End
While opposition within the U.S. government ultimately prevailed and slowed the withdrawal, that private discussion is often cited by American officials in Turkey as an unmistakable sign of the leaders’ rapport.
Their chemistry may even allow Erdogan to square the circle over Turkey’s contentious purchase of a Russian missile system.
Trump ally Senator Lindsey Graham, who delivered a stern message on the S-400 missile deal with Moscow when he met Erdogan earlier this year, is showing signs of a change to U.S. policy.
Graham met Erdogan over the weekend, praised Turkey as a “very important ally,” and said he’s trying to reverse one major penalty imposed on Ankara over the Russia accord -- suspension from the advanced F-35 fighter jet program. There are also reports that the U.S. is offering its Patriot missiles to Turkey. Officially, the U.S. administration says it’s still looking to sanction Turkey over the S-400 purchase.
The political and economic cost of supporting almost 3.7 million Syrian refugees at a time of hardship helped opposition parties defeat Erdogan’s party at local elections in Turkey’s two most important cities this year.
Turkey wants to extend the security zone agreed with the U.S to cover a total of 440 kilometers (275 miles) of frontier, and more than double its width to 32 kilometers, to allow a large number of the refugees to go home.
“There could be a city for refugees where they can be sheltered and farm their own gardens,” Erdogan said last week while outlining the plan. “We think at least 2 million Syrian refugees can be settled in this area. And if we can carry this line further south to Raqqa and Deir-Ezzor then the number of refugees who could return could exceed 3 million.”
Pushing as far south as the oil-rich province of Deir-Ezzor would pit Turkey against all the major players in the Syrian war, including the U.S., Russia and Iran. But Erdogan’s comments were a clear indicator of his ambitions as he prepared to travel to New York.
To contact the reporter on this story: Selcan Hacaoglu in Ankara at shacaoglu@bloomberg.net
To contact the editors responsible for this story: Onur Ant at oant@bloomberg.net, Mark Williams
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