Economists See China Output Recovering to Hit 2% Growth in 2020
Economists See China Output Recovering to Hit 2% Growth in 2020
(Bloomberg) -- China’s economy will expand 2% this year, according to a survey of economists, signaling a slow but steady recovery from the historic slump in the first quarter.
Growth in the current quarter will be 5.2% from a year ago, faster than the 3.2% expansion in the three months to June. The survey of 67 economists was conducted in the week after second-quarter data showed a faster-than-expected recovery.
The Chinese economy returned to growth in the second quarter, marking an important milestone in the global struggle to recover from the virus shutdowns. However, even with that improvement, growth this year will still be the lowest since the 1970s.
“Solid inbuilt momentum in the domestic economy, coupled with external tailwinds from recovering global demand, are setting the stage for a further growth acceleration in the second half of the year,” said Aidan Yao, senior economist at AXA Investment Managers in the survey.
A number of banks have upgraded their forecasts, with UBS Group AG raising theirs to 2.5% in 2020 earlier this week, citing a recovery in domestic consumption and strong investment. The chance of a recession happening over the next 12 months is 20% according to the survey, lower than 25% last month.
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With assistance from Bloomberg