ECB's Vasle Sees Upturn Intact, Trump Weaponizes Exports: Eco Day

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Welcome to Friday, Europe. Here’s the latest news and analysis from Bloomberg Economics to take you into the weekend:

• The euro-area economy remains on track with European Central Bank projections that foresee an upturn later this year, policy maker Bostjan Vasle said
• The solution to Europe’s next economic crisis might not lie with the European Central Bank -- or whoever leads it after Mario Draghi
• The Bank of England will be forced to dig out its old playbook if it wants to convince traders it’s prepared to move faster on lifting interest rates
• One year in, Putin’s grand economic plan for Russia is tainted with manure
• President Donald Trump’s trade war against China has a new front: weaponizing American exports. The U.S. is seeking to choke off Beijing’s access to key technologies by limiting the sale of vital U.S. components to Huawei and other companies, yet Trump also held out the prospect that Huawei could be part of a trade deal. Meanwhile, a trade-war scoreboard shows the U.S. and China are in a dead heat
• Increased trade tensions are a concern for the U.S. but Dallas Fed chief Robert Kaplan is undecided if that means the next interest rate move should be a hike or a cut. For Loretta Mester, returning inflation to the Fed’s 2% target requires restraint. Meantime, Fed research shows U.S. rate hikes increase the risk of crises abroad
• The Bank of England will be forced to dig out its old playbook if it wants to convince traders it’s prepared to move faster on lifting interest rates
• Companies in the U.S. are paying almost all the costs from Trump’s tariffs on Chinese imports, IMF researchers said in findings that contradict the president’s assertions that China is footing the bill
• Here’s our weekly review of the world economy and lessons learned

To contact Bloomberg News staff for this story: James Mayger in Beijing at jmayger@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Jeffrey Black at jblack25@bloomberg.net

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With assistance from Bloomberg