ECB’s Key Tool, One Fed Hike, Japan’s Falling Exports: Eco Day

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Welcome to Monday, Europe. Here’s the latest news and analysis from Bloomberg Economics to help get your day started:

  • The European Central Bank is approaching the point where it needs to decide whether if negative interest rates are more problem than solution
  • Easing mode. Mario Draghi’s latest stimulus salvo means his successor as European Central Bank chief may not be forced into the kind of monetary policy U-turn he once faced
  • Dot plot. The Federal Reserve will bring the current cycle of interest-rate increases to an end after one more hike later this year, a Bloomberg survey of economists shows. Simon Kennedy reports the Fed will reinforce the view it’s not hiking for a while as policy makers gather this week
  • Hitting the brakes. Japan’s exports fell for a third straight month in February, as a global economic slowdown and waning technology cycle take a toll
  • Rate-cut watch. Low inflation sweeping across Southeast Asia is here to stay, raising the odds some of the region’s biggest economies may reverse course on interest rates this year
  • Back to black. Australia’s budget will surge back to surplus in fiscal 2020 as key revenue drivers dodge an economic slowdown, but a pre-election spending spree is a risk to the bottom line, Deloitte Access Economics says

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