Easing Plans May Raise Coronavirus Risks for U.K. Chronic-Disease Patients

(Bloomberg) --

Plans to get people back to work may put about 2.7 million young and middle-aged U.K. adults at higher risk of dying from Covid-19 because of common chronic conditions, according to a study.

More people under the age of 70 with underlying diseases are likely to die, but how many of them do depends on the extent to which society reopens, according to the study published in the Lancet journal. U.K. deaths above the expected baseline could be from about 18,000 to a worst case of almost 600,000 in a single year, depending on the rate of spread and the virus’s impact on health and care, which have yet to determined, according to researchers from University College London.

Leaders around the world are trying to find ways to restart economies frozen by the new coronavirus. Yet health experts are wary of allowing the pandemic to take on new life as people once again begin traveling and mingling.

Concerns about death from the virus have centered on the elderly and those with serious conditions, such as severe lung disease. The impact on younger adults with chronic conditions like heart disease and diabetes still isn’t known, and could be affected both by the virus itself and the availability of health services, the authors said.

One or more chronic health conditions is relatively common in people 30 and older, the researchers said in the study. People with diseases not included in the government’s vulnerable patient list may have as high or even greater death rates than those that are included. The government’s list, which on March 22 had 1.5 million people, includes those on chemotherapy and those taking anti-rejection drugs after organ transplantation.

The study of National Health Service patient records assumed that as much as 80% of the U.K. population would contract the coronavirus. It was started before the U.K.’s lockdown was declared.

©2020 Bloomberg L.P.